Topline
The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration along with increasing aggressive talk are deterring international travelers, as indicated by an accumulating amount of tourism statistics.
Key Facts
President Trump’s tariffs, expansionist speeches, and sensational news stories about lawful tourists and permanent residents with green cards being
held by U.S. immigration authorities
are “accumulating as major obstacles for the U.S. travel sector” and “causing international travel to regress by several years,” according to Adam Sacks, the president of Tourism Economics—a nonpartisan division of Oxford Economics that monitors tourism data—told.
Although Tourism Economics’ prediction at the end of 2024 anticipated a 9% increase in international arrivals to the U.S. for this year, the organization has since updated its forecasts.
baseline forecast
For a decrease of 5% compared to last year—”however, we acknowledge that it might be significantly worse as circumstances keep evolving,” Sacks stated.
According to Tourism Economics, the forecasted total U.S. travel expenditure, which encompasses both domestic and international visitor spending, is predicted to decrease by 3.7% compared to their initial projection made in December. This revision equates to approximately $64 billion less contribution to the American economy over the course of this year.
Travelers coming from Canada and Mexico are notably significant, making up 36 million visitors in 2024 and constituting approximately half of total international tourism to the U.S.
Airlines have seen reservations from Canada to the U.S. drop by 70% when compared to the corresponding time frame last year, according to OAG, which provides international flight data.
announced Wednesday
.
Following the warning from the U.S. Travel Association (USTA) in early February that a decrease of just 10% in Canadian visitors could lead to
$2.1 billion in missed expenditures
and could put at risk approximately 140,000 positions within the hospitality industry, according to initial statistics provided by Statistics Canada for February.
A 23% decrease in international vehicle movement
from Canada to the USA
Key Background
Throughout history, there has consistently been a link between global perceptions of the United States and the level of incoming tourism. “In the initial term of President Trump, we observed significant shifts in how travelers viewed coming into the U.S. These alterations primarily affected regions where policies and statements made an impact,” explained Sacks, pointing out that before Trump took office, arrivals from places such as Mexico, China, and various Middle Eastern nations were increasing; however, this trend reversed dramatically during his first three years due to intense verbal attacks directed towards these areas. “The sharp decline in visitor numbers aligns closely with unfavorable policies and discourse when examining trends related to travel plans, cancellations, attitudes about visiting America, along with future flight reservations and booking speeds.” Currently, experts see conditions deteriorating further compared to what was experienced under Trump’s presidency initially.
What We Don’t Know
Could rising anti-American sentiments hinder global attendance at major sports events like the 2025 Ryder Cup, 2026 FIFA World Cup, and the 2028 Olympics and Paralympics? “Over the past quarter-century, every time the U.S. implements policies opposed by Europeans, it deters them from visiting,” Sacks stated. “This trend became particularly evident during the Second Gulf War when public opinion in Europe was strongly against it. However, current attitudes toward Europe seem even more negative; essentially viewing them almost as enemies rather than allies. This manifests most clearly in trade disputes where interactions are framed entirely within competitive terms.”
Crucial Quote
The administration is making mistake after unnecessary mistake in the realm of international tourism,” Sacks stated. “There’s absolutely no benefit to be had from the confrontational stance the administration has adopted towards Canada. This holds equally for Europe whenever Trump asserts that the European Union was established solely to undermine the United States. There is simply no advantage in such an approach.
Tangent
Following Canada, Mexico ranks as the second largest contributor to inbound tourism in the U.S., coming right after Canada. Before the intensification of tariff threats, the USTA forecasted
18% increase
In 2025, we will compare Mexican visitor numbers with those from 2024. Reflecting on the initial period of Trump’s first term, the U.S. experienced a 3% decrease in travelers coming from Mexico. However, as per figures provided by the National Travel and Tourism Office within the U.S. Department of Commerce—the authoritative federal body for tracking such metrics—air traffic from Mexico to the U.S. dropped by 6% between February of this year when measured against last year.
Further Reading
Germany and the UK Issue Warnings Against Traveling to the U.S. Following Accounts of Detentions
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Canadian Travelers Avoiding the U.S. Might Result in a $4 Billion Hit to the Economy
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